Finally picked up a new belt (a 40. the 38 seemed a smidge too snug.) Got some 38" jeans, a large dress shirt, and... a medium long sleeved T.
I tried on a medium dress shirt and it was a little too tight in the chest (to be fair the T is a little tight as well, but not obscenely so. I least, I don't think so) but the stomach fit no problem. So if I start toning up, I'll be able to wear a mediums. And maybe some 36" pants.
I can't tell you how insane this is.